MARTINA'S WORLD TRIP
UNITED STATES: September 26 - December 3, 2004
Your Dictionary
(Übersetzungshilfe)
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MARTINA'S WORLD TRIP UNITED STATES: September 26 - December 3, 2004 |
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Your Dictionary
(Übersetzungshilfe) |
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| Tuesday, November 2nd, 2004 - Presidential Elections in the USA
(Or the live report of a Thriller) |
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| What an important day in history: Today the Americans elect their 44th President. Although officially there are seven candidates running for President, in the end it’ll come down to the candidates of the two major Parties: John F. Kerry is running for the Democrats, George W. Bush for the Republicans. Before coming here, I was what I assume most Western Europeans are: not very well informed about the details of international politics but following the mass media with a general feeling of discomfort regarding Bush’s foreign policy and his “war against terrorism”. Ironic films and books, like the ones by Hollywood director Michael Moore, popular jokes and very simple-minded quotations didn’t help to present the American President as an educated, smart and trustworthy politician - or at least as a human being with common sense. Okay, I was never much into politics (and that hasn’t changed by the way) but I still believe that the picture we have of George W. Bush might be somehow one-sided. Most of what has been reported about him in Europe so far, concerns foreign affairs and this is basically all we, the international community, seem to care about. Little do we know about what he has actually done for his country IN his country. Did you know that he was the first Governor in Texas history to be elected to consecutive four year-terms? 68,6% voted for him in 1998. Would they have done so if he had been a miserable Governor? I guess he must have done SOMEthing right. Also, as a matter of fact, he has done some good stuff since he became President of the United States, like for instance considerably lowering taxes which is a big deal for a lot of people in this country. Don’t misunderstand me: I am not making propaganda for him. I just try to shed some light on a side of George W. Bush you might not be familiar with. At least, I wasn’t. Before coming here, I didn’t know anybody – and I mean NObody – who was in favour of Bush’s politics. Even Americans I met in Europe or during my trip in Africa did express strong feelings and disagreement with their current administration. What I couldn’t help but wonder was: If all these people are against him – who the hell voted for that guy in the first place??? Guess what, in the past five weeks I met people who did. And who will do it again. Why, you may ask. Well, even if you don’t agree with everything your leader stands for, what if you disagree even more with the only alternative you could choose? Indeed, it looks like John Kerry doesn’t have the best reputation neither. Currently Senator of Massachusetts, it seems like some people in New England have doubts in his ability to turn plans into reality. Apparently, quite a few of his electoral promises of the past don’t seem to come true – even after 20 years in the US Senate. His protest against the US government after the Vietnam War in the 1970s has raised a lot of questions amongst US patriots about Kerry’s integrity and the fact that his recent statements concerning this chapter of his political career are much more moderate than they were 30 years ago, leads people to ask themselves whether Kerry would also be likely to easily change his mind in the future and possibly refrain from some of the promises he made during his presidential campaign. His announcement, that the only way to heal America’s economic deficit would be to raise taxes, didn’t help much to convince the undecided voters. So who would you rather vote for: Somebody who sticks to his course even if reason would suggest to adjust it to fact findings, or somebody who might go with the flow depending on what people like to hear? Or, as the front cover of this week’s ‘The Economist’ puts it: “The Incompetent or the Incoherent?” In the end, it seems to me as if it all comes down to this: People outside the United States seem to care more about Bush’s radical foreign policy than his domestic politics (about which most of us don’t really know that much) and would therefore love to see Kerry win. USA citizens take a more selfish approach (and can you really blame them for it?) by voting for the candidate that promises to make their – domestic – life a better one. And for some of them, this means that Bush is their best bet. After overhearing quite a few discussions in the past weeks and watching a little bit of American television, I must admit that my personal opinion of George W. Bush has slightly shifted to a less radical picture than I used to have before. It seems that this guy is trying hard to do the right thing, he might just not be surrounded by the right people to give him advice. I am not saying I want him to win the elections but a few days ago, I dreamt he will and wouldn’t be surprised if it happened. Let me tell you a little more about how the elections work here: First of all, I was surprised about how election campaigns are run in this country. Already weeks ago people had stickers on their cars, posters in their windows or signs stuck in the lawn of their gardens that would identify them as supporters of George W. Bush and his Vice President candidate Dick Cheney, or John F. Kerry and his VP John Edwards. I have never seen anything like this in Europe. The campaign spots shown on TV were quite rigorous and sometimes surprisingly hostile towards the other Party. Again, this is nothing like what I know from back home. Just this afternoon they reported that the Republican Party has spent 229 million US Dollars on advertising, compared to 358 million spent by the Democrats. I find this incredible. Think of all the useful things they could have done with this money! What happens today besides the presidential elections, doesn’t seem very important on an international level but is a big deal for the people here. Apart from electing their next President, people vote for a lot of other decisions of political nature: 34 seats in the US Senate and 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be filled based on today’s results, 11 Governors have to take office according to the elections’ outcome, plus people need to make up their mind on some important issues such as whether Florida and Nevada will raise their minimum wages, whether California will spend 3 billion dollars on human stem-cell research and if 11 states will be in favour of amending the American Constitution in such a way that marriage between a couple of the same gender will be prohibited by law. I actually saw a ballot for voters of Michigan and I can tell you that it was a BIG piece of paper with lots of crosses to make. Paper ballots, however, are only used for absentee voting. If you are able to go and vote in person, people are doing that on electronic terminals with touch screens. (Given my personal experience with touch screens on ticket automats and ATMs, I must admit that I question the flawless functioning of these machines but hey, who am I to question the successful operation of America’s election practices?) Well, if we can trust legend, then this little anecdote may give us some clues on the outcome of today: Apparently, there is a small village in the North of New Hampshire that has this weird tradition of opening their polls at midnight on election day (usual opening hours would be something like 8am to 8pm). As the village has only 26 inhabitants who are eligible to vote, their final results are usually the very first to be officially announced during the day which happened today around noon. And now get this: Their election results “usually” (whatever that means) matches with the final vote of the entire country. Isn’t that something? I bet you want to know how their polls turned out today... and the answer is 19:7 for Bush! And when I look at the TV screen or on the internet, where 50 states on the American map slowly change from white (no projections yet) to blue (for Kerry) or red (for Bush), it totally looks as if the legend could come true once again... Well, that was earlier this evening. It is almost 11 pm Central Standard Time now, I am sitting in front of the TV and this is a true 'live report'. According to a survey amongst voters that was published on NBC News half an hour ago, 46% are “happy or satisfied” with the Bush Administration but 52% are “angry or dissatisfied” with it. Could this be Kerry’s chance? The colours on the American map were set in motion by more and more projections coming in and it starts to get exciting. Still, anything is possible. At this time, 65% of the precincts (some sort of elections districts) have reported their votes and Alaska is the only state where the polls are still open. 15 states have not yet disclosed any projections but based on the forecasted results of the other 34 states, at this point George Bush would get 197 and John Kerry 188 out of the 270 Electoral Votes that are needed to become President. Direct votes are 51% for Bush and 48% for Kerry. However, this doesn’t really mean anything, since it is the Electoral Votes that will decide in the end. In other words, even if one of the candidates gets the majority of the direct votes, he may still lose to his adversary if the other candidates gathers 270 ore more Electoral Votes. Well yea, their system here is a little weird and it took me a while to understand it. In very basic terms, the Electoral Votes are determined by each state which, according to its eligible population, allocates a certain number of points to their votes. These points translate into the Electoral Votes and whoever obtains the majority here (with a minimum of 270 required “points”) will become President, no matter if the overall percentage of direct votes is lower than the one of his adversary. Makes sense? Ops, it’s 23:20 and the projection for Florida just came in: it’s likely to go to Bush which gets him up to 234 Electoral Votes. Kerry took California and Pennsylvania which boosted him up earlier but now he needs to make Ohio and at least some of the other states missing out West and around the Great Lakes in order to still have a chance. It’s going to get tight!! Let’s look back a few hours (times indicated are Eastern Standard Time, one hour ahead of where I am): 19:08 – the very first projections were published on CNN.com. According to their forecast, the allocation of states at this point looks like follows:
20:07 – 5% precincts reported their results so far. Projections are (new states in bold):
20:46 – 7% precincts reported their results so far. Projections are (new states in bold):
21:03 – 12% precincts reported their results so far. Projections are (new states in bold):
Sorry, but I had dinner in between, so there’s a little gap in the details here... but at 21:37 a TV channel reported that the Republicans filed a first law suit in Pennsylvania, claiming that 13.000 Absentee Ballots might not have been counted correctly. – Does anybody else feel reminded of the last elections four years ago or is it just me...?! 23:14 – 54% precincts reported their results so far. Projections are (new states in bold):
00:36 – 71% precincts reported their results so far. Projections are (new states in bold):
00:42 – it looks like Kerry will take Oregon, so he’s up to 195 Electoral Votes now... on TV they claim he gets Washington too, that makes 207 Electoral Votes but the votes of 10 states are still missing... 01:00 – they just announced that Bush is likely to win Ohio which would get him 20 Electoral Votes and would make it almost impossible for Kerry to win in the end... he’s ahead for New Hampshire, Minnesota and Wisconsin but those states wouldn’t get him enough Electoral Votes to turn the final result around... 01:09 – George Bush is gathering his staff, ready to celebrate their victory, at least that’s what a TV reporter just reported from Washington DC. Also Alaska is leaning towards Bush, and the same goes for New Mexico. In any case, he only needs 4 more Electoral Votes to make it... 01:19 – the outstanding states for reliable projections are: Nevada (currently states 49% direct votes for both candidates), New Mexico (slightly ahead for Bush), Minnesota (will probably go to Kerry), Wisconsin (Kerry), Michigan (Kerry), Iowa (50:50), New Hampshire (Kerry), Hawaii (Kerry) and Alaska (Bush). 01:26 – Alaska goes to Bush which adds 3 points to his score – he’s at 269 out of 270 required Electoral Votes now!! At least, Kerry will most probably make New Hampshire... 01:36 – Minnesota officially goes to Kerry (+10 Electoral Votes). But now there are discussions that the counts for Ohio are not yet completed and that the projected result is still in the open... Which brings Kerry to 217 Electoral Votes and Bush back to 249 (without Ohio). Will Ohio become the Florida of 2000? 01:55 – Ohio seems to become some kind of an issue: although 93% of the ballots are counted, official projections have turned back from red (for Bush) to white (too early to make a statement). Different TV channels overtake each other with forecasts, estimates and attempts to analyse what is going on but at this stage, it seems pretty clear that no one really knows where this is going in the end. Right now, the direct vote results are 48% for Kerry as opposed to 51% for Bush, who just exceeded the total number of votes he obtained during the last presidential election four years ago. 2:03 – New Hampshire goes to Kerry which puts him up to 221 Electoral Votes. It is the first state that went a different way tonight than during the elections in 2000. At this stage, 7 states with their 68 Electoral Votes are still outstanding:
All these states voted for the Democrat candidate last time. If they did not change their mind in the meantime and all their votes will go to Kerry, he might end up with 265 Electoral Votes. Still, this is not enough to win. Judging by the elections of 2000, the outstanding Nevada (5 Electoral Votes) might go to Bush, so he could gather 254 Electoral Votes. Either way, it’ll all come down to Ohio and its 20 Electoral Votes... 2:17 – Michigan goes to Kerry. He’s up to 238 Electoral Votes now... 2:24 – A brief report on the 11 states that had to vote on same-gender marriage reports that 10 out of these 11 states have approved to define marriage as a union “between a man and a woman only”. So far 9 out of these 10 states are Bush states. 2:28 - John Edwards, Kerry’s VP candidate, addressed the crowd gathered outside Senator Kerry’s Headquarter in Boston to ensure the American people that “Every vote counts and every vote will be counted. (...) We will fight for every vote. You deserve no less!” As it turns out, the problem with Ohio are roundabout 175.000 Provisional Ballots that might take a few more days until they are entirely counted. Provisional Ballots allow people to cast a vote in a certain precinct (= election district) even if their name does not appear on the precinct’s pool list. Provisional Ballots are kept separate from the other ballots until the county election board has decided whether the voter was indeed qualified to vote in that precinct or not. In rare cases, like this year’s Ohio, the Provisional Ballots can determine the outcome of a state’s final result. 2:34 – News from Iowa come in that the margin between Bush and Kerry is too small to make any projection. Due to machine problems, the remaining votes cannot be counted anymore tonight and people will have to wait until during the day tomorrow for any reliable forecast from Iowa. 2:41 – Kerry got Hawaii with 4 Electoral Votes which puts him at 242 Electoral Votes. Bush still sits on 249 but the Republican Headquarter in the White House seems to believe that they will get Ohio in the end (97% precincts are counted by now) and that George Bush will win the elections... Please keep in mind that all these figures are still projections and no final data!!! 2:52 – Bush leads in Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada but by less than 100.000 votes each. Final results can still turn these elections upside down and first speculations come up whether the Democrats would actually file law suits in some states where the projected results are very close. The remaining uncounted 3% of regular precinct votes, absentee ballots and provisional ballots can still make a difference in some states, potentially not only Ohio, and definite numbers will not be available before tomorrow or even later. The White House declared they will win but so did Kerry. It is 2 am my time and I am getting tired. I thought I would stay up until I can announce the name of the 44th President of the United States but it all looks like this ain’t happening tonight. Perhaps they should consider putting up a candidate who would promote less arguable elections next time... 3:22 – Still 249 Electoral Votes for Bush and 242 for Kerry. Wisconsin, Nevada and New Mexico cannot make a projection yet (the actual counts are too close) and neither Iowa nor Ohio can present their counts in the next few hours. Was the tiny village in New Hampshire right or not, will the next President be named Kerry or Bush? Whoever it’ll be, may the better candidate win and may this nation get the President it deserves. Amen. |
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